Beyond Worst-Case Analysis: Iran's Likely Responses to an Israeli Preventive Strike

Opinion Articles


Although an Israeli preventive strike on Iran's nuclear program would be a high-risk endeavor carrying a potential for escalation in the Levant or the Persian Gulf, it would not be the apocalyptic event that some foresee. In this Policy Note, two Washington Institute military experts assess the likelihood of various Iranian responses based on the regime's past behavior and strategic culture. Cutting through Tehran's often-fiery rhetoric on the subject, they outline steps Washington can take to both impede reconstitution of the program and mitigate post-strike risks without appearing complicit in any Israeli decision to attack.

Translation Source: 
Washington Institute for Near East Policy