The Future of the Regime and the Revolution in Egypt

The comparison between the current situation in Egypt with that of the eve of January 25th, 2011 draws astonishment as to the rate in which the closing of the public domain and the shutting down of politics are unfolding. This is the feeling of the revolutionaries who came out in large number to topple President Hosni Mubarak, or rather this is the feeling of many of them; the Tamarrod (or Rebellion) Movement, a youths movement of some of the January 25th revolutionaries that supported the June 30th demonstrations - the popular incubator for the July 3rd, 2013 coup - is in favor of the current president and former Field Marshal Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. The split that occurred in the alliance that confronted Hosni Mubarak, between the revolutionaries and the Muslim Brotherhood, will later deepen and divide the revolutionaries themselves to a camp diametrically opposed to the July 3rd arrangements and another camp of reformers (or what used to be called the Democratic Wing) which completely blends with the current regime. These splits confirm the difficulty in forming a strong and effective opposition in the short term.

Al-Sisi is governing the country with the support of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), led by the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, which is strongly sponsoring and lavishly supporting the regime. Support from these countries is not limited to economic aid; it extends to whitewashing the regime's image - which is denounced by human rights organizations such as "Human Rights Watch" for committing "crimes against humanity" - through pressuring the US and European governments, which was clear in the shuttle visits of the Emirates Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, in Europe during last year.

Internally, while the Egyptian opposition scene looks greatly fragmented, al-Sisi seeks to cement his rule using the support of the military and the bureaucracy, but he does not seem very enthusiastic about the existence of a parliament that could shared power, or any part of it, with him.

Some believe that al-Sisi's position regarding the Muslim Brotherhood, the organization that is currently banned, could change after the death of the Saudi monarch, King Abdullah, but this belief does not seem solid or probable in light of current conditions.